The Evolution of Gulf Oil Diplomacy: Shifting from Market Share Maximization to Strategic Political Leverage

Abstract

The evolution of Gulf oil diplomacy reflects a strategic recalibration from market share maximization toward the pursuit of greater political leverage on the global stage. This study aims to analyze how major Gulf oil-producing states, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, have shifted their energy diplomacy strategies after 2024 in response to global energy transitions, geopolitical realignments, and changing market dynamics. Employing a qualitative research methodology based on case study analysis, the research utilizes primary policy documents, trade data, and diplomatic communiqués as sources, while thematic coding serves as the principal data analysis technique. Findings indicate that Gulf states are increasingly leveraging oil production adjustments, investment diversification, and new energy alliances not just for economic advantage but to strengthen their geopolitical influence in Asia, Africa, and emerging markets. The study recommends that Gulf states deepen multilateral energy dialogues, diversify diplomatic portfolios beyond hydrocarbons, and invest strategically in green energy platforms to sustain long-term influence. Future implications suggest that oil diplomacy will become more multifaceted, merging traditional market tactics with broader foreign policy goals. Overall, the transformation of Gulf oil diplomacy marks a significant departure from volume-driven strategies toward a nuanced exercise of political power in a rapidly evolving international system.